Nghiên cứu ứng dụng mô hình MIKE để đánh giá ảnh hưởng của sự biến đổi khí hậu và nước biển dâng đến quá trình xâm nhập mặn ở các cửa sông lưu vực sông Vu Gia - Thu Bồn, Việt nam

Abstract

In recent years, salinity intrusion is a major challenge for provinces in the central of Vietnam in general and Vu Gia Thu Bon river basin in particular under climate change sea level rise scenarios. In this paper, MIKE-NAM and MIKE 11 are used to simulate the salinity intrusion process during dry season by using RCP4.5 scenarios for Vietnam introduced by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Vietnam (2016) for 3 periods of 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099. In the base period 1986-2005, the results show that the distance of 1% and 4% salinity intrusion is reported at Vu Gia Rivers of 16.2km and 12.5km, 20.9km and 17.4km at Thu Bon River, respectively. According to the scenario RCP4.5, the distance of salinity intrusion extends into the inland about 4,2-5km compared to the base scenario by the end of the 21st century.